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Home→The Westburn Dictionary of Marketing→S→scenario planning

scenario planning

Definition:
The purpose of business planning is to provide an accessible framework within which the firm's strategic and tactical decisions can be taken. The integrity of the structure demands an understanding of the forces that will shape the future. Traditional approaches to business planning have made the principal assumption that the future can be predicted: these have largely been based on the single-line forecasts made by sophisticated mathematical techniques. A growing realization of the inadequacy of the traditional approaches has necessitated a re-examination of the principal assumption. A contingency approach is now preferred. It makes the assumption that it is not possible to predict or quantify the future, but that it is possible to describe a range of possible alternative futures by combining in various ways the key elements that will determine the future. Second-generation planning systems have moved away from rigid methodology towards a more conceptual or qualitative approach to understanding the future. It is in this context that multiple scenarios are widely used.

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[scenario]

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© Westburn Publishers Ltd 2002, The Westburn Dictionary of Marketing edited by Michael J Baker, ISBN 978-0-946433-01-8. www.themarketingdictionary.com. Entry: [Douglas Brownlie and Michael Baker], [1998].